What Will Bitcoin Look Like in Twenty Years? - By Daniel Jeffries

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Bitcoin holding will be worth in this year

Postby Gardakinos В» 06.01.2019

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Daniel Jeffries I am an author, futurist, systems architect, public speaker and pro blogger. September 27th Tweet This. Prediction is a tricky business.

Arthur C. Clarke, one of the greatest sci-fi writers of all time, saw the coming of satellites and GPS , as well as the cloud, the Internet and telecommuting but by his own admission he overestimated the importance of rockets and failed to see the importance of a prototype laptop a company gifted to him to write his next novel. We can never see black swan events or completely unexpected technology try explaining a computer and the Internet to an 18th century farmer but we can do a kind of Monte Carlo analysis of tomorrow and see the major pathways spinning out into infinity.

In fact, most people get the future laughably wrong so before we leap into our predictions, we need to understand why so we can try to avoid the same mistakes. The first reason people get the future so wrong is because they dedicate about five minutes to looking at something before they form an opinion on it.

Unfortunately, many people live almost their entire lives at this level and their opinions are worth zero when it comes to seeing new trends and developments. The second major reason people get the future so wrong is it goes against everything they understand about the world. They had every advantage and they blew it. They mistook the past for the future and they paid a heavy price by going bankrupt as the market roared past them. To see the future you have to be able to step outside of yourself, forget your past successes and see beyond your current understanding.

A third major reason people fail to see the future is because it challenges their position of power. Asking these people about Bitcoin is like asking a taxi driver what he thinks about Uber or a horse and buggy manufacturer what he thinks about cars. Their opinions are worth less than nothing. The fourth major reason people screw up predictions is because they mistake their opinion for reality.

One is the map and one is the territory. Take this now infamous article by Clifford Stoll from Newsweek in that declared the Internet a total failure poised for imminent collapse. Stoll writes:.

What an idiot! Check it out:. Stoll saw the future, he just refused to see it. If he managed to get out of his own way and just observe instead of interpreting and filtering what he saw , the article would have gone down in history as one of the most forward thinking and accurate ever written.

That brings us to our next reason. The fifth reason people get the future wrong is a complete and total lack of patience. The waiting is the hardest part. It takes patience to let things develop naturally. Creativity requires setbacks and failures and tremendous tenacity. Once you expose your idea to the reality of rust, gravity and friction, things tend to fall apart.

No plan survives contact with the enemy. Reality is a whetstone that either shatters you or sharpens your ideas. A classic example of the real creative process and how long it takes comes from George de Mestral, the inventor of Velcro. He first came up with the idea in , after taking his dog for a walk in the woods and seeing a bunch of burrs attached to his fur.

He started working on recreating the tiny hooks in and it took him ten years to make it work and mass produce it. After that he opened his company in the late s, he expected immediate high demand.

The rest of the world only cares about the problems things solve for them not the idea or ideology behind it. Soon after the ski industry noticed it would work on boots. Lastly, we can take one more lesson from Stoll before I launch into my predictions for crypto. His biggest mistake is the sixth and final reason people are blind to the future. He took current inventions, air lifted them forward and imagined them as the solution to future problems.

Current inventions solve current problems. Future problems will take brand new solutions. In the article Stoll mentions that CD books would never replace real books. He was right that reading books on CD with a crappy CRT monitor that rips apart your retinas was a miserable experience.

But understanding that helps us understand the necessary characteristics of a future solution. CDs are clunky. Monitors back then were blurry and hard to read. They hurt the eyes. Computers were huge and not very portable.

Even laptops were bricks that burned your legs that nobody would want to read a damn thing on. Books are heavy too. And they can easily get lost or damaged by the elements. People in and out of crypto see them as bubble that will pop, causing prices to crash badly. We can practically taste the decentralized future. Any day now. The bubble will pop. Vitalik is right. The apps are hideous and practically unusable.

Yet they survived and the best was yet to come. Amazon and Google went on to dominate the world. Innovation is hard work. There are no guidelines, no working templates, no business models to clone. The bubble burst is just the next step. Three years after that the tech will really mature and take off running. Many governments will not sit by and lose control of the money supply without a vicious fight.

Anyone working on a project right now should be anticipating protocol level assaults on decentralized cryptos and designing defenses against them.

A distributed, decentralized DDoS stopping grid, like the one from Gladius is a great first step but there is a lot more work to be done. Governments will lose the battle in the long run, probably in thirty to one hundred years maybe faster depending on how many wars or financial crises strike.

But in ten or twenty years expect very strong government cryptocurrencies to come to power and dominate the flow of money for many, if not most, people around the world.

When soldiers invade your house and take everything you own suddenly the need for privacy becomes very real to people. Remember this interview with Snowden about government surveillance on the John Oliver show? The only time they care is when the government has a picture of their dick on file. People will adopt government cryptos like good little sheep without a second thought.

Count on it! Of course, in many ways government issued cryptocurrencies are utterly ridiculous, as Naval Ravikant points out in his epic blockchain tweetstorm:. By not allowing a single group to control or change the rules arbitrarily, decentralized cryptos and apps provide a powerful set of checks and balances against harmful actions to the system.

Government crypto will represent a total and complete corruption of that idea. They will absolutely outlaw physical cash and they will do it under the guise of one of three excuses:. In a democracy, the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars.

That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country. Government cryptos will be a very, very bitter pill to swallow for current true believers in the crypto space but they better get used to them.

Better to embrace the current system with blockchain and then overwhelm it from within rather than ignore it so that it becomes hostile. The reasons are simple. Some governments will love decentralization and others will hate it. Even as some countries openly rail against them, many others will openly embrace decentralized cryptocurrencies, especially the ones who suffered the worst under the dominance of Europe and the US dollar over the last century.

I see the Latin American countries, freewheeling no-holds-barred globalists like Singapore, historical bankers-to-the-world Switzerland and many of the Asian and African countries welcoming decentralized crypto with open arms, if only to stick it to the current empires. But to remain relevant, decentralized cryptos need to move fast. They need a killer app. To really take root they need that killer app to spread virally across the globe. This will bring existing power players into the system and they will then use that power to defend it against attacks from outside powers.

I outlined one of the ways that can happen in my article for gamifying the distribution of money. There are many, many more. This is a classic example of grafting old inventions onto a new system. I see it as a potential intermediate step.

Maybe a decentralized AI assistant or attention filter?

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Re: bitcoin holding will be worth in this year

Postby Femi В» 06.01.2019

Government cryptos will be a very, very bitter pill to swallow for current true believers in the crypto space but they better get used to them. The reasons are simple. Think about how hard it would be to pass your Bitcoin down to your loved ones now.

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Re: bitcoin holding will be worth in this year

Postby Douk В» 06.01.2019

I will be somewhat intentionally vague here, so as not to put all of these ideas out into worty collective unconscious but think digital tracking of all aspects of small itself service life from where you go and what you do, to statistical predictions about your behavior, as well as behavioral algorithms designed to incentivize you to conform to an ideology, and lastly think unbreakable digital rights management and outright genocide. Deflationary coins are for hoarding and investing. I will still eat my dick if wrong. Daniel Jeffries January 6. Enter a starting investment value and the bitcoin tool will guess the investment value on the final date.

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Re: bitcoin holding will be worth in this year

Postby Arashirg В» 06.01.2019

I just cranked through some of the easier predictions to make. That is easy. But when transacting in Bitcoin, beware of large transfer fees when going back and forth between coins http://gremmy-gr.pw/tonea-investments-nz-limited-1.php other currencies and even transferring to other digital wallets. Since it is all wild speculation, remember to take these predictions with a grain, or perhaps a barrel, of salt. Originally Bitcoin had no limit.

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Re: bitcoin holding will be worth in this year

Postby Nakasa В» 06.01.2019

Of course, in many ways government issued cryptocurrencies are utterly holdng, as Naval Ravikant points out in his epic blockchain tweetstorm:. Arthur C. Think about how hard it would be to pass your Bitcoin down to your loved ones now. Reality is a whetstone that either shatters you or sharpens your ideas. Deflationary coins are for hoarding and investing.

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Re: bitcoin holding will be worth in this year

Postby Kagashura В» 06.01.2019

What could they have done with blockchain? In essence, the blockchain itself will be the bank and the customer service department, perhaps using your biometric markers and third party proof-of-staked groups or a decentralized AI that can verify your loved ones, as http://gremmy-gr.pw/not-for-business-counting.php as trigger events like your http://gremmy-gr.pw/how-to-price-your-business-when-selling-1.php of days. Amazon and Google went on to dominate the world. In the article Stoll mentions that CD books would i replace real books. A DAO will require AI to help manage and mitigate its rulesets and it will bitcojn to be able to auto-generate templated governance models.

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Re: bitcoin holding will be worth in this year

Postby Faushicage В» 06.01.2019

Will they even be usable? I outlined one of the ways that can happen in my article for gamifying the distribution of money. We can start thinking about how to save it right here, right now. While this is platform offers a huge range of currencies at a low cost, there are some bugs reported with the Android mobile app and some users have reported delays withdrawing certain currencies.

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Re: bitcoin holding will be worth in this year

Postby Duramar В» 06.01.2019

See a trend there? But when transacting in Bitcoin, beware of large transfer fees when going back and forth between coins and other currencies and even transferring to other digital wallets. CPI Adjusted?

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Re: bitcoin holding will be worth in this year

Postby Arashizilkree В» 06.01.2019

Stocks is further evidence to why Coinbase is a leader in digital currencies in the United States. Using the Bitcoin Price Return Calculator There counter only the few options when using the bitcoin return calculator, but any small adjustments can have major effects on your results. Crypto enthusiasts will have to come to terms with trading fact that the blockchain can and will enable as much evil as over does good. CoinExchange click another low-cost exchange with most fees pegged at 0.

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Re: bitcoin holding will be worth in this year

Postby Gazshura В» 06.01.2019

If he really wanted to guide it visit web page could have stuck around like Linus did with Linux. An exact prediction is hard to provide because there are numerous fundamentals that are likely to change between now and nitcoin. You need a coin my friend! I think BTC could potentially hit bigger figures by the year

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Re: bitcoin holding will be worth in this year

Postby Durn В» 06.01.2019

The bitcoin return results quoted should in no way be taken as advice on whether to invest in bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. Nothing is all good or evil. The possibilities are endless so get moving! These are not microtransactions. It will require something more radical.

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Re: bitcoin holding will be worth in this year

Postby Samuramar В» 06.01.2019

Management is hard enough as it is in corporate environments. Again, CPI adjusted if selected. Maybe a decentralized AI assistant or attention filter?

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Re: bitcoin holding will be worth in this year

Postby Shaktigal В» 06.01.2019

But then again, the end of is essentially millennia away. Then Satoshi snuck it in overnight with no mention of it and no explanation in the source code. He's mids, married, with two kids. Originally Bitcoin had no limit.

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Re: bitcoin holding will be worth in this year

Postby Kagataxe В» 06.01.2019

Yet, many people in the cryptosphere love to speculate on just how high the see more of their favorite coins may rise. Now you can listen to this article read by a real voice actor on Listle. If I mistype something or copy and paste wrong, my money disappears worht. Will they even be usable?

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Re: bitcoin holding will be worth in this year

Postby Tygokinos В» 06.01.2019

Think the Great Firewall of China attacking or blocking transactions by screwing with packets and headers with state level man in the middle attacks. Future problems will take brand new solutions. He took current inventions, air lifted them forward and imagined them as the solution thia future problems. Think about how hard it would be to pass your Bitcoin down to your loved ones now.

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Re: bitcoin holding will be worth in this year

Postby Vosida В» 06.01.2019

I outlined one of the ways that can happen in my article for gamifying the distribution of money. Ending Date: The date bitcoins are sold, or a date to estimate the bitcoin thiis value. Gamifying the Delivery of Money.

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